Fiscal Multicointegration and Sustainability in OECD Economies

Transparency, Political Polarization, and Political Budget Cycles in OECD Countries

We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. While some recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies, in contrast we show, conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency, that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a f...

Long-Term Fiscal Sustainability in Major Economies

Poland: A Successful Transition to Budget Sustainability?

In this paper we evaluate the sustainability of the current fiscal policy regime in Poland, which has been in place for almost 10 years since the start of the economic reform process. We use the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) as a framework, and evaluate the sustainability of current policies. Consistency of fiscal policy with the IBC is evaluated using unit root and cointegration tests....

Fiscal Transparency

It is widely believed that fiscal transparency has large and positive effects on fiscal performance. According to the IMF, “transparency in government operations is widely regarded as an important precondition for macroeconomic fiscal sustainability, good governance, and overall fiscal rectitude” (Kopits & Craig (1998, p. 1)). Indeed, both the IMF and the OECD are currently developing Codes of ...

The Political Budget Cycle is Where You Can't See It: Transparency and Fiscal Manipulation

We investigate the effects of fiscal transparency and political polarization on the prevalence of electoral cycles in fiscal balance. The recent political economy literature on electoral cycles identifies such cycles mainly in weak and recent democracies. In contrast, we show, conditioning on a new index of institutional fiscal transparency, that electoral cycles in fiscal balance are a feature...